SOLAR RETROGRADE MOTION UPDATE

Everyone is aware of the fact that the planets orbit our sun. However, not everybody knows that the sun also has a looping motion around the so called center of mass of the Solar System known as the barycenter. This motion is repeated about every 10-20 years. However, very infrequently, the sun fails to loop around the barycenter by just falling short of it and then loops around the barycenter again. This interesting event took place on three occasions in the past 4 centuries. The first occurred in the early 1630s, the second event about 1810-12, and the most recent solar retrograde motion event around April of 1990. The earth-sun relationships and the weather events which followed the first two episodes were of historic significance. The first event was followed by the well documented Maunder Minimum. This was marked by 50-75 years of very little solar activity (few sunspots). Even during what was supposed to be a solar max, the sunspot numbers were very low. Additionally, there were quite a few very major volcanic eruptions. This chain of events resulted in what has been called the "Little Ice Age" during the second half of the 1600s and a portion of the 1700s. The River Thames in London would typically freeze during this incredibly cold period. This event is unheard of in the 20th century. A similar scenario followed the solar retrograde motion event of 1810-12. There was a prolonged period of solar inactivity along with some tremendous volcanic eruptions. One of these, Tambora, was in 1815 and was followed by the "year without a summer" in 1816. There were destructive freezes during each month of the spring through summer in New England. The cooling following these two events was worldwide as might be inferred. This now brings us to the most recent solar retrograde motion event of 1990.

Mr. Shirley predicted that similar geologic events along with incredible weather extremes would follow the most recent solar retrograde motion of 1990 based on the fact that these conditions prevailed following the last two documented events. As far as I can determine, his predictions have been pretty much on target to this point. We certainly have had some very major volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. The most violent eruption was that of Mt. Pinatubo during May of 1991. Needless to say, the weather events of the past 3-5 years have been nothing short of incredible across the Globe. There have been more phrases of the "hottest ever", "coldest ever", "wettest ever", snowiest ever", or "driest ever" to describe the weather patterns in various regions around the Globe over the past few years than is typical for a 50 to 100 year period. A few dramatic examples will illustrate what I mean:

1. Very wet spring in 1991 in the Midwest.

2. Historic drought in the western U.S. continued in the early 1990s.

3. Extremely dry spring in 1992 (driest ever in some states) in the Midwest.

4. Frost in June of 1992 in the eastern Corn Belt. One of the top 2 or 3 coldest summers on record in the Midwest. Comments were made that it was another "year without a summer". Interestingly enough, this followed the major volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 as 1816 had followed the very major eruption of Tambora in 1815.

5. Major South African drought in the 1992-93 growing season.

6. Wettest spring through July period of 1993 ever in the Midwest resulting in catastrophic floods which devastated much of the crop that was planted.

7. Snowiest winter since records have been kept in the Northeastern U.S. for the Winter of 1993-94. Boston had about 100 inches of snow.

8. Hottest summer (1994) on record in the Northeastern U.S.

9. Hottest June-July period (1994) on record for northern Europe.

10. Two major Brazilian coffee freezes coming two weeks apart in July of 1994.

11. Historic California floods during the Winter of 1994-95.

In James Shirley's article of 1988, he predicted such extreme weather events of "a magnitude and persistence unprecedented thus far in this century." These would also be accompanied by major volcanic eruptions. I would say that Mr. Shirley gets an "A" for his predictions to this point. But perhaps the most startling consequences of the latest solar retrograde motion phenomenon are yet to come. As indicated above, the last two solar retrograde motion events were followed by a prolonged period of solar inactivity. Will this be repeated?? We will not have to wait very long to find out. We are now entering the normal double sunspot minimum on schedule. If there is still little sunspot activity by about 1998 or 1999, then it will become more obvious that perhaps we will be in for a new prolonged period of solar inactivity of perhaps 25 years or more. If this is indeed the case, it would have tremendous climatic consequences. There would very likely be a major global cooling similar to the last two episodes. However, there is one factor now which was not a part of the equation during the last two episodes. This is the "global warming" factor due to increased Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. Who knows how all of this will come into play?

In summary, the weather conditions and geologic events around the Globe the past 4-5 years have indeed paralleled those following the last two known solar retrograde motion events to this point. It remains to be seen whether or not our sun will experience a prolonged period of very little solar activity which would in turn have tremendous climatic implications. It will be extremely interesting to watch both the earth's weather and the sunspot numbers over the next 5 years or so. Based on the last two solar retrograde motion episodes, we can expect EXTREMES in weather to continue at least through the rest of this decade and possibly a lot longer.

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